ABP NEWS-Nielsen Opinion Poll: AAP gains strength, likely to win majority; BJP drops behind
New Delhi: In continuing with the recent trend Aam Aadmi Party once again emerged as the highest gainer, according to the lastest ABP NEWS – Nielsen Opinion Poll.
With 37% of the vote share, AAP was predicted to win 35 seats, while the BJP came in second with 33% vote share converting to 29 seats. Congress came in third with just 6 seats (18% vote share).
Who will form government in delhi ?
| ||
Party
|
Seat
|
Vote Share
|
AAP
|
35
|
37%
|
BJP
|
29
|
33%
|
Congress
|
6
|
18%
|
Others
|
0
|
--
|
BJP falling, AAP rising
What is noteworthy here is the growing graph of AAP and subsequent fall of the BJP.
Although the trends of the latest Opinion Poll are in keeping with the results of the recently conducted ABP NEWS snap poll, earlier opinion polls showed BJP in the lead and AAP coming in second.
- According to the November survey BJP was getting 46 seats, AAP 18 and Congress 5.
- In the December survey, BJP was getting 45 seats, AAP 17 and Congress 7.
- In the January Survey, BJP had 34 seats, AAP 28 and Congress 8.
As is clear, BJP’s vote share has been continously dropping as the poll dates near, and while AAP has been gaining in numbers.
Kiran Bedi factor
Who is the first choice for CM in delhi?
| ||
CM Candidate
|
Party
|
Vote %
|
Arvind Kejriwal
|
AAP
|
48%
|
Kiran Bedi
|
BJP
|
42%
|
Ajay Maken
|
Congress
|
7%
|
Bringing Kiran Bedi on board does not seem to have helped the BJP much. 47% of the respondents rated Arvind Kejriwal as the most preferred candidate for Chief Minister, while only 42% favored Kiran Bedi.
On the question of who, between Kiran Bedi and Arvind Kejriwal ditched Anna Hazare, the opinion remaided mixed, with 23% of the opinion that both were responsible, while 20% thought it was only Kejriwal and 18% thought it was only Bedi.
Who, between Kiran Bedi and Arvind Kejriwal ditched Anna Hazare ?
| |
Candidate
|
Vote %
|
Arvind Kejriwal
|
20%
|
Kiran Bedi
|
18%
|
Both
|
23%
|
Not Anyone
|
26%
|
Mixed opinions also remaied on the question of who was more involved in tamasha and less in work.
AAP appeal
Based on the findings of the ABP NEWS –Nielsen Opinion Poll, AAP has maximum support among the lower income groups, the young, SC/ST/OBC and the Muslims. Most respondents voting for AAP believe it will bring down corruption and reduce electricity rates.
While 'ability to control rising prices' and maintaining law and order are the reasons why respondents are intending to vote for BJP.
Modi vs Kejriwal
The most poular leader in Delhi
| |||
Candidate
|
November
|
December
|
January
|
Narendra Modi
|
63%
|
58%
|
49%
|
Arvind Kejriwal
|
25%
|
33%
|
42%
|
Even though Narendra Modi remained the most poular leader in Delhi with 46% in his favour, Arvind Kejriwal came in a close second with 43%.
Also, at least 58% of the respondents feel that the result of the Delhi elections will depend on people's opinion about the performance of Modi government at center, which was genearally rated as good by a similar percentage of the respondents.
Delhi goes to polls on February 7, and the results will be out on February 10.
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