A
five-cornered fight has made this election spicier and more
unpredictable. The Congress has a 'clean' candidate, but the party is
battling anti-incumbency. BJP, on the other hand, is riding the Modi
wave but is yet to project a CM.
Following are the four post-poll scenarios in Maharashtra:
1. BJP 120 seats, Allies 25+ = 145
At least one opinion poll has said this could happen. The BJP has with it a coalition of four small parties, and they could together reach the magic mark. For this, BJP will have to score heavily across the state, and the Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatna (SSS), with its base in western Maharashtra, the Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP), which represents the Dhangar community, Shiv Sangram which has some clout among Marathas, and RPI with its Dalit support base, will all have to do well in their respective pockets.
2. BJP + Allies 90 to 120
In this scenario, the BJP will have to reach out to its ex-ally Shiv Sena or the NCP, depending on who has willingness to ally and on the strength of numbers.
3. Shiv Sena + NCP + MNS
All three parties have targeted Modi during the campaign, and there has been speculation that Sharad Pawar may bring the Thackeray cousins together and form a 'regional party alliance' with either the NCP or Sena at the helm.Possible if BJP does not perform up to its own expectations
4. Congress + NCP
If the two together get a substantial number of seats, they could ally once again.Most pundits though think it may not happen as they may not get close to the 145 mark.
Following are the four post-poll scenarios in Maharashtra:
PRE-POLL SURVEYS
|
||||
India Today Cicero
|
TheWeek-Hansa
|
Zee 24-Taas
|
C-Voter-India News
|
|
BJP
|
125-144
|
154
|
110
|
105
|
CONG
|
25-35
|
25
|
68
|
52
|
NCP
|
28
|
17
|
39
|
37
|
SS
|
51-63
|
47
|
52
|
45
|
MNS
|
13-Jul
|
10
|
7
|
21
|
OTHERS
|
20-30
|
20
|
12
|
28
|
Maharashtra Assembly election 2014 polling % Live updates
Haryana Assembly election 2014 polling % Live updates
1. BJP 120 seats, Allies 25+ = 145
At least one opinion poll has said this could happen. The BJP has with it a coalition of four small parties, and they could together reach the magic mark. For this, BJP will have to score heavily across the state, and the Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatna (SSS), with its base in western Maharashtra, the Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP), which represents the Dhangar community, Shiv Sangram which has some clout among Marathas, and RPI with its Dalit support base, will all have to do well in their respective pockets.
2. BJP + Allies 90 to 120
In this scenario, the BJP will have to reach out to its ex-ally Shiv Sena or the NCP, depending on who has willingness to ally and on the strength of numbers.
3. Shiv Sena + NCP + MNS
All three parties have targeted Modi during the campaign, and there has been speculation that Sharad Pawar may bring the Thackeray cousins together and form a 'regional party alliance' with either the NCP or Sena at the helm.Possible if BJP does not perform up to its own expectations
4. Congress + NCP
If the two together get a substantial number of seats, they could ally once again.Most pundits though think it may not happen as they may not get close to the 145 mark.
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